Live British & Irish racecards — probabilities are estimates, not tips
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Homestrait

3yo · Brian Ellison · Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · Fri, 4 Sept 2026

Model probability
11.2%
Fair odds
79/10
Model edge
Raw score
57.5
Official rating
70
Weight
136lb
Draw
4
Days since last run
23

Today's race

The conditions this rating was produced for.

Race
Arete Foundation Fillies' Handicap Stakes
Conditions
Class 5 · 7f · Heavy · Turf
Field
12 runners · Handicap

Recent form

Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.

223146

Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.

Why this rating?

Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.

Data quality: HighModel v1.4
Recent form & race quality
Form line 223146 over the last 6 start(s); 23 day(s) since the last run
58%6336.3
Official rating & class suitability
Official rating 70 against a class 5 contest
12%384.6
Distance suitability
Past-distance record not available on the current data feed
6%503.0
Going suitability
Going record not available on the current data feed (today: heavy)
6%503.0
Draw / course-position advantage
Stall 4 of 12
3%993.0
Speed / performance ratings
Official rating 70 against a field average of 66 (speed figures not in the current feed)
4%602.4
Course performance
Course record at Haydock not available on the current data feed
4%502.0
Trainer recent form
Brian Ellison — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
3%501.5
Jockey recent form
Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
2%501.0
Weight / handicap position
Carrying 136 lb (below top weight)
2%350.7