How it works
FormIQ rates every horse in today's races and turns those ratings into a percentage chance of winning. Here is the short version of how that happens, in plain English.
1. Where the numbers come from
Today's racecards are pulled live from The Racing API — every British and Irish meeting, refreshed every ten minutes. For each horse we get its official rating, recent form, weight, draw, age, days since its last run, trainer and jockey. For each race we get the going, distance, class and field size.
Odds When the Betfair Exchange is reachable we show real live odds next to each horse. When it isn't, we show a fair odds figure worked out from the model's own probability (1 ÷ chance). Fair odds are the model's price, not the market's, so they can't be used to spot a value bet on their own.
2. How a rating is built
Each horse is scored against the others in its own race.
Class and rating — how the horse's official rating compares with the field. The strongest single signal.
Recent form — the horse's last few runs, with the latest runs counting most.
Weight, draw and freshness — lighter weight, a favourable stall and the right gap since the last run all help.
Each factor's weight and score is shown on every racecard under "Why this rating?" — nothing is hidden.
3. From score to percentage
Every horse gets a score from 0 to 100. Those scores are converted into a winning probability so the whole field adds up to exactly 100% — the favourite gets the biggest slice, the outsider the smallest.
| Horse | Score | Share of the field | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marblehead | 82 | 82 ÷ 340 | 24% |
| Ivy Gate | 61 | 61 ÷ 340 | 18% |
| Five others | 180 | 180 ÷ 340 | 53% |
| Unraced newcomer | 17 | 17 ÷ 340 | 5% |
Marblehead is the top rating at 24% — which also means the model expects it to be beaten roughly three times in four. Fair odds are simply 1 ÷ 0.24, about 4/1.
Data quality (High, Medium, Low) is shown separately, and it is not a measure of how likely a horse is to win. It tells you how much solid information the card gave us — a horse with several recent runs and an official rating scores High; an unraced newcomer scores Low. A Low-quality 30% chance and a High-quality 30% chance are the same estimated chance, held with different amounts of evidence.
4. Results and the record
Every pick is tracked, win or lose.
The model's top pick in every race is logged before the off. Once a race is weighed in and declared official, the finishing position and starting price are pulled back and the pick is settled — a stewards' enquiry keeps it open until it's resolved.
The Track Record page shows each day's picks and how they fared. The Staking Record settles them on paper three ways — £1 win, £1 each way and a £1 four-fold — and rolls the totals up by day, month, quarter and year. The Vs Tipsters page scores the model head-to-head against about sixty published tipsters, all settled the same way at official starting prices.
5. What this cannot do
Read this part twice.
A racecard can't see fitness on the day, stable confidence, ground changing after the first race, tactics, or trouble in running. Horse racing is genuinely uncertain and the best-rated horse in a race usually loses.
Nothing here is a betting recommendation. If you do bet, only stake money you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available from BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org) and GamCare on 0808 8020 133.