Live British & Irish racecards — probabilities are estimates, not tips
← Back to the 20:24 Kempton (AW)

Must Believe

4yo · George Baker · Jack Dace(5) · Fri, 4 Sept 2026

Model probability
9.4%
Fair odds
48/5
Model edge
Raw score
53.5
Official rating
75
Weight
135lb
Draw
3
Days since last run
23

Today's race

The conditions this rating was produced for.

Race
Industry Leading In-play Markets At Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Qualifier)
Conditions
Class 5 · 2m · Standard · All-Weather
Field
8 runners · Handicap

Recent form

Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.

-45183

Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.

Why this rating?

Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.

Data quality: HighModel v1.4
Recent form & race quality
Form line -45183 over the last 5 start(s); 23 day(s) since the last run
58%5531.6
Official rating & class suitability
Official rating 75 against a class 5 contest
12%465.5
Distance suitability
Past-distance record not available on the current data feed
6%503.0
Going suitability
Going record not available on the current data feed (today: standard)
6%503.0
Draw / course-position advantage
Stall 3 of 8
3%982.9
Speed / performance ratings
Official rating 75 against a field average of 70 (speed figures not in the current feed)
4%622.5
Course performance
Course record at Kempton (AW) not available on the current data feed
4%502.0
Trainer recent form
George Baker — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
3%501.5
Jockey recent form
Jack Dace(5) — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
2%501.0
Weight / handicap position
Carrying 135 lb (top weight)
2%200.4