Model probability
4.9%
Fair odds
39/2
Model edge
—
Raw score
45.4
Official rating
86
Weight
154lb
Draw
7
Days since last run
111
Today's race
The conditions this rating was produced for.
Race
Copybet Bog Now For Saturday's Racing Handicap Hurdle Race
Conditions
Class 5 · 2m 7f · Good · Turf
Field
11 runners · Handicap
Recent form
Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.
FF45-4
Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.
Why this rating?
Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.
Data quality: HighModel v1.4
| Recent form & race quality Form line FF45-4 over the last 5 start(s); 111 day(s) since the last run | 58% | 40 | 23.1 |
| Official rating & class suitability Official rating 86 against a class 5 contest | 12% | 63 | 7.6 |
| Distance suitability Past-distance record not available on the current data feed | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Going suitability Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good) | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Course performance Course record at Worcester not available on the current data feed | 4% | 50 | 2.0 |
| Speed / performance ratings Official rating 86 against a field average of 90 (speed figures not in the current feed) | 4% | 42 | 1.7 |
| Trainer recent form Nigel Hawke — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Draw / course-position advantage Draw not a material factor over jumps | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Weight / handicap position Carrying 154 lb (below top weight) | 2% | 54 | 1.1 |
| Jockey recent form David Noonan — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 2% | 50 | 1.0 |