Live British & Irish racecards — probabilities are estimates, not tips
← Back to the 16:58 Down Royal

Earthwarming

2yo · K Smith · Wesley Joyce(3) · Fri, 4 Sept 2026

Model probability
8.5%
Fair odds
54/5
Model edge
Raw score
47.9
Official rating
80
Weight
122lb
Draw
16
Days since last run
30

Today's race

The conditions this rating was produced for.

Race
Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden
Conditions
Class 5 · 7f · Good · Turf
Field
17 runners · Non-handicap

Recent form

Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.

No form figures are published for this horse — it may be unraced or returning from a long absence.

Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.

Why this rating?

Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.

Data quality: MediumModel v1.4
Recent form & race quality
No recorded form figures for this horse
58%4526.1
Official rating & class suitability
Official rating 80 against a class 5 contest
12%546.5
Distance suitability
Past-distance record not available on the current data feed
6%503.0
Going suitability
Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good)
6%503.0
Speed / performance ratings
Official rating 80 against a field average of 80 (speed figures not in the current feed)
4%502.0
Course performance
Course record at Down Royal not available on the current data feed
4%502.0
Trainer recent form
K Smith — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
3%501.5
Weight / handicap position
Carrying 122 lb (below top weight)
2%721.4
Draw / course-position advantage
Stall 16 of 17
3%471.4
Jockey recent form
Wesley Joyce(3) — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
2%501.0