← Back to the 17:30 Down Royal
Arizonaneargalway
2yo · Denis Gerard Hogan · Mel Sheridan(7) · Fri, 4 Sept 2026
Model probability
5.6%
Fair odds
17/1
Model edge
—
Raw score
22.1
Official rating
64
Weight
133lb
Draw
10
Days since last run
12
Today's race
The conditions this rating was produced for.
Race
Grant Thornton Nursery Handicap
Conditions
Class 5 · 7f · Good · Turf
Field
10 runners · Handicap
Recent form
Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.
0880
Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.
Why this rating?
Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.
Data quality: HighModel v1.4
| Recent form & race quality Form line 0880 over the last 4 start(s); 12 day(s) since the last run | 58% | 6 | 3.8 |
| Official rating & class suitability Official rating 64 against a class 5 contest | 12% | 29 | 3.5 |
| Distance suitability Past-distance record not available on the current data feed | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Going suitability Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good) | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Speed / performance ratings Official rating 64 against a field average of 61 (speed figures not in the current feed) | 4% | 57 | 2.3 |
| Course performance Course record at Down Royal not available on the current data feed | 4% | 50 | 2.0 |
| Trainer recent form Denis Gerard Hogan — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Draw / course-position advantage Stall 10 of 10 | 3% | 42 | 1.2 |
| Jockey recent form Mel Sheridan(7) — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 2% | 50 | 1.0 |
| Weight / handicap position Carrying 133 lb (below top weight) | 2% | 38 | 0.8 |