Model probability
2.7%
Fair odds
183/5
Model edge
—
Raw score
28.8
Official rating
70
Weight
130lb
Draw
5
Days since last run
4
Today's race
The conditions this rating was produced for.
Race
Grant Thornton Ulster Cesarewitch Handicap
Conditions
Class 5 · 2m 2.5f · Good · Turf
Field
17 runners · Handicap
Recent form
Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.
00086/
Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.
Why this rating?
Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.
Data quality: HighModel v1.4
| Recent form & race quality Form line 00086/ over the last 5 start(s); 4 day(s) since the last run | 58% | 14 | 7.9 |
| Official rating & class suitability Official rating 70 against a class 5 contest | 12% | 38 | 4.6 |
| Distance suitability Past-distance record not available on the current data feed | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Going suitability Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good) | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Draw / course-position advantage Stall 5 of 17 | 3% | 95 | 2.8 |
| Course performance Course record at Down Royal not available on the current data feed | 4% | 50 | 2.0 |
| Speed / performance ratings Official rating 70 against a field average of 71 (speed figures not in the current feed) | 4% | 47 | 1.9 |
| Trainer recent form Matthew J Smith — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Weight / handicap position Carrying 130 lb (below top weight) | 2% | 55 | 1.1 |
| Jockey recent form Robbie Colgan — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 2% | 50 | 1.0 |