Model probability
4.8%
Fair odds
99/5
Model edge
—
Raw score
39.5
Official rating
71
Weight
131lb
Draw
12
Days since last run
37
Today's race
The conditions this rating was produced for.
Race
Grant Thornton Ulster Cesarewitch Handicap
Conditions
Class 5 · 2m 2.5f · Good · Turf
Field
17 runners · Handicap
Recent form
Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.
34-066
Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.
Why this rating?
Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.
Data quality: HighModel v1.4
| Recent form & race quality Form line 34-066 over the last 5 start(s); 37 day(s) since the last run | 58% | 33 | 19.1 |
| Official rating & class suitability Official rating 71 against a class 5 contest | 12% | 40 | 4.8 |
| Distance suitability Past-distance record not available on the current data feed | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Going suitability Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good) | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Draw / course-position advantage Stall 12 of 17 | 3% | 68 | 2.0 |
| Course performance Course record at Down Royal not available on the current data feed | 4% | 50 | 2.0 |
| Speed / performance ratings Official rating 71 against a field average of 71 (speed figures not in the current feed) | 4% | 49 | 2.0 |
| Trainer recent form Peter Fahey — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Weight / handicap position Carrying 131 lb (below top weight) | 2% | 52 | 1.0 |
| Jockey recent form Ben Coen — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 2% | 50 | 1.0 |