Model probability
5.4%
Fair odds
35/2
Model edge
—
Raw score
41.6
Official rating
68
Weight
128lb
Draw
15
Days since last run
26
Today's race
The conditions this rating was produced for.
Race
Grant Thornton Ulster Cesarewitch Handicap
Conditions
Class 5 · 2m 2.5f · Good · Turf
Field
17 runners · Handicap
Recent form
Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.
0015-6
Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.
Why this rating?
Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.
Data quality: HighModel v1.4
| Recent form & race quality Form line 0015-6 over the last 5 start(s); 26 day(s) since the last run | 58% | 38 | 22.3 |
| Official rating & class suitability Official rating 68 against a class 5 contest | 12% | 35 | 4.2 |
| Distance suitability Past-distance record not available on the current data feed | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Going suitability Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good) | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Course performance Course record at Down Royal not available on the current data feed | 4% | 50 | 2.0 |
| Speed / performance ratings Official rating 68 against a field average of 71 (speed figures not in the current feed) | 4% | 43 | 1.7 |
| Draw / course-position advantage Stall 15 of 17 | 3% | 52 | 1.6 |
| Trainer recent form C A McBratney — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Weight / handicap position Carrying 128 lb (below top weight) | 2% | 62 | 1.2 |
| Jockey recent form Chris Hayes — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 2% | 50 | 1.0 |