Live British & Irish racecards — probabilities are estimates, not tips
← Back to the 16:07 Kilbeggan

Dawn Coming

4yo · C Byrnes · Philip Byrnes · Fri, 4 Sept 2026

Model probability
16.1%
Fair odds
26/5
Model edge
Raw score
69.7
Official rating
116
Weight
164lb
Draw
7
Days since last run
39

Today's race

The conditions this rating was produced for.

Race
WTW Willis Maiden Hurdle
Conditions
Class 5 · 2m · Good to Soft · Turf
Field
17 runners · Non-handicap

Recent form

Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.

223-34

Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.

Why this rating?

Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.

Data quality: HighModel v1.4
Recent form & race quality
Form line 223-34 over the last 5 start(s); 39 day(s) since the last run
58%7241.7
Official rating & class suitability
Official rating 116 against a class 5 contest
12%10012.0
Speed / performance ratings
Official rating 116 against a field average of 101 (speed figures not in the current feed)
4%833.3
Distance suitability
Past-distance record not available on the current data feed
6%503.0
Going suitability
Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good to soft)
6%503.0
Course performance
Course record at Kilbeggan not available on the current data feed
4%502.0
Trainer recent form
C Byrnes — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
3%501.5
Draw / course-position advantage
Draw not a material factor over jumps
3%501.5
Jockey recent form
Philip Byrnes — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
2%501.0
Weight / handicap position
Carrying 164 lb (below top weight)
2%330.7