← Back to the 19:15 Kilbeggan
Chanceawetmorning
6yo · Gordon Elliott · Danny Gilligan · Fri, 4 Sept 2026
Model probability
23.6%
Fair odds
16/5
Model edge
—
Raw score
62.7
Official rating
126
Weight
166lb
Draw
2
Days since last run
9
Today's race
The conditions this rating was produced for.
Race
Clarke's Electrical Contractors, Castletown Geoghegan Beginners Steeplechase
Conditions
Class 5 · 3m · Good to Soft · Turf
Field
5 runners · Non-handicap
Recent form
Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.
131934
Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.
Why this rating?
Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.
Data quality: HighModel v1.4
| Recent form & race quality Form line 131934 over the last 6 start(s); 9 day(s) since the last run | 58% | 63 | 36.3 |
| Official rating & class suitability Official rating 126 against a class 5 contest | 12% | 100 | 12.0 |
| Distance suitability Past-distance record not available on the current data feed | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Going suitability Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good to soft) | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Speed / performance ratings Official rating 126 against a field average of 126 (speed figures not in the current feed) | 4% | 50 | 2.0 |
| Course performance Course record at Kilbeggan not available on the current data feed | 4% | 50 | 2.0 |
| Trainer recent form Gordon Elliott — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Draw / course-position advantage Draw not a material factor over jumps | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Jockey recent form Danny Gilligan — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 2% | 50 | 1.0 |
| Weight / handicap position Carrying 166 lb (top weight) | 2% | 20 | 0.4 |