Live British & Irish racecards — probabilities are estimates, not tips
← Back to the 20:00 Newcastle (AW)

Jesmond Dawn

5yo · Grant Tuer · Jack Garritty · Sat, 5 Sept 2026

Model probability
13.4%
Fair odds
13/2
Model edge
Raw score
48.3
Official rating
69
Weight
134lb
Draw
7
Days since last run
22

Today's race

The conditions this rating was produced for.

Race
Free Tips On Attheraces.com Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Conditions
Class 5 · 7f · Standard · All-Weather
Field
9 runners · Handicap

Recent form

Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.

235150

Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.

Why this rating?

Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.

Data quality: HighModel v1.4
Recent form & race quality
Form line 235150 over the last 6 start(s); 22 day(s) since the last run
58%5028.7
Official rating & class suitability
Official rating 69 against a class 5 contest
12%374.4
Distance suitability
Past-distance record not available on the current data feed
6%503.0
Going suitability
Going record not available on the current data feed (today: standard)
6%503.0
Speed / performance ratings
Official rating 69 against a field average of 66 (speed figures not in the current feed)
4%562.3
Course performance
Course record at Newcastle (AW) not available on the current data feed
4%502.0
Draw / course-position advantage
Stall 7 of 9
3%621.8
Trainer recent form
Grant Tuer — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
3%501.5
Jockey recent form
Jack Garritty — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
2%501.0
Weight / handicap position
Carrying 134 lb (below top weight)
2%270.5