Live British & Irish racecards — probabilities are estimates, not tips
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Blackwater Lilly

6yo · Neil King · J M Quinlan · Sat, 5 Sept 2026

Model probability
13.2%
Fair odds
33/5
Model edge
Raw score
53.6
Official rating
95
Weight
164lb
Draw
4
Days since last run
39

Today's race

The conditions this rating was produced for.

Race
Andy Townsend Memorial Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race
Conditions
Class 5 · 2m 6f · Good · Turf
Field
10 runners · Handicap

Recent form

Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.

2-4446

Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.

Why this rating?

Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.

Data quality: HighModel v1.4
Recent form & race quality
Form line 2-4446 over the last 5 start(s); 39 day(s) since the last run
58%5029.1
Official rating & class suitability
Official rating 95 against a class 5 contest
12%779.2
Distance suitability
Past-distance record not available on the current data feed
6%503.0
Going suitability
Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good)
6%503.0
Speed / performance ratings
Official rating 95 against a field average of 87 (speed figures not in the current feed)
4%692.7
Course performance
Course record at Stratford not available on the current data feed
4%502.0
Trainer recent form
Neil King — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
3%501.5
Draw / course-position advantage
Draw not a material factor over jumps
3%501.5
Jockey recent form
J M Quinlan — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
2%501.0
Weight / handicap position
Carrying 164 lb (below top weight)
2%290.6