Live British & Irish racecards — probabilities are estimates, not tips
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Concert Pitch

2yo · Brian Ellison · Connor Beasley · Sat, 5 Sept 2026

Model probability
15.7%
Fair odds
27/5
Model edge
Raw score
65.8
Official rating
72
Weight
124lb
Draw
9
Days since last run
23

Today's race

The conditions this rating was produced for.

Race
Jw4x4 Northallerton Nursery Handicap Stakes
Conditions
Class 4 · 5f · Good to Soft · Turf
Field
9 runners · Handicap

Recent form

Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.

662221

Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.

Why this rating?

Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.

Data quality: HighModel v1.4
Recent form & race quality
Form line 662221 over the last 6 start(s); 23 day(s) since the last run
58%7946.1
Official rating & class suitability
Official rating 72 against a class 4 contest
12%425.0
Distance suitability
Past-distance record not available on the current data feed
6%503.0
Going suitability
Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good to soft)
6%503.0
Course performance
Course record at Thirsk not available on the current data feed
4%502.0
Weight / handicap position
Carrying 124 lb (below top weight)
2%801.6
Trainer recent form
Brian Ellison — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
3%501.5
Speed / performance ratings
Official rating 72 against a field average of 79 (speed figures not in the current feed)
4%341.4
Draw / course-position advantage
Stall 9 of 9
3%421.2
Jockey recent form
Connor Beasley — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
2%501.0