← Back to the 15:50 Thirsk
Midnight Thunder
4yo · Saeed bin Suroor · Pierre-Louis Jamin · Sat, 5 Sept 2026
Model probability
5.3%
Fair odds
179/10
Model edge
—
Raw score
42.4
Official rating
92
Weight
137lb
Draw
4
Days since last run
20
Today's race
The conditions this rating was produced for.
Race
Rudding Park Harrogate Handicap Stakes
Conditions
Class 3 · 6f · Good to Soft · Turf
Field
10 runners · Handicap
Recent form
Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.
9/40-5
Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.
Why this rating?
Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.
Data quality: HighModel v1.4
| Recent form & race quality Form line 9/40-5 over the last 4 start(s); 20 day(s) since the last run | 58% | 30 | 17.4 |
| Official rating & class suitability Official rating 92 against a class 3 contest | 12% | 72 | 8.7 |
| Distance suitability Past-distance record not available on the current data feed | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Going suitability Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good to soft) | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Draw / course-position advantage Stall 4 of 10 | 3% | 96 | 2.9 |
| Speed / performance ratings Official rating 92 against a field average of 90 (speed figures not in the current feed) | 4% | 55 | 2.2 |
| Course performance Course record at Thirsk not available on the current data feed | 4% | 50 | 2.0 |
| Trainer recent form Saeed bin Suroor — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Jockey recent form Pierre-Louis Jamin — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 2% | 50 | 1.0 |
| Weight / handicap position Carrying 137 lb (below top weight) | 2% | 37 | 0.7 |