Live British & Irish racecards — probabilities are estimates, not tips
← Back to the 15:10 Navan

Thunderbear

6yo · Stephen Thorne · Jack Kearney(3) · Sat, 5 Sept 2026

Model probability
6.8%
Fair odds
68/5
Model edge
Raw score
43.2
Official rating
93
Weight
136lb
Draw
5
Days since last run
77

Today's race

The conditions this rating was produced for.

Race
Christmas Parties At Navan Racecourse On 6th & 13th December Handicap
Conditions
Class 5 · 5f · Good · Turf
Field
8 runners · Handicap

Recent form

Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.

14-600

Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.

Why this rating?

Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.

Data quality: HighModel v1.4
Recent form & race quality
Form line 14-600 over the last 5 start(s); 77 day(s) since the last run
58%3118.1
Official rating & class suitability
Official rating 93 against a class 5 contest
12%748.9
Distance suitability
Past-distance record not available on the current data feed
6%503.0
Going suitability
Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good)
6%503.0
Speed / performance ratings
Official rating 93 against a field average of 83 (speed figures not in the current feed)
4%722.9
Draw / course-position advantage
Stall 5 of 8
3%752.3
Course performance
Course record at Navan not available on the current data feed
4%502.0
Trainer recent form
Stephen Thorne — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
3%501.5
Jockey recent form
Jack Kearney(3) — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
2%501.0
Weight / handicap position
Carrying 136 lb (below top weight)
2%310.6