Live British & Irish racecards — probabilities are estimates, not tips
← Back to the 16:20 Navan

African Affair

3yo · Ms Sheila Lavery · Robbie Colgan · Sat, 5 Sept 2026

Model probability
1.8%
Fair odds
539/10
Model edge
Raw score
22.1
Official rating
57
Weight
133lb
Draw
2
Days since last run
110

Today's race

The conditions this rating was produced for.

Race
Return Of The Jumps At Navan Racecourse September 19th Handicap (Div I)
Conditions
Class 5 · 1m 2f · Good · Turf
Field
24 runners · Handicap

Recent form

Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.

0-08

Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.

Why this rating?

Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.

Data quality: MediumModel v1.4
Recent form & race quality
Form line 0-08 over the last 3 start(s); 110 day(s) since the last run
58%73.8
Distance suitability
Past-distance record not available on the current data feed
6%503.0
Going suitability
Going record not available on the current data feed (today: good)
6%503.0
Speed / performance ratings
Official rating 57 against a field average of 52 (speed figures not in the current feed)
4%612.4
Draw / course-position advantage
Stall 2 of 24
3%762.3
Official rating & class suitability
Official rating 57 against a class 5 contest
12%182.2
Course performance
Course record at Navan not available on the current data feed
4%502.0
Trainer recent form
Ms Sheila Lavery — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
3%501.5
Jockey recent form
Robbie Colgan — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
2%501.0
Weight / handicap position
Carrying 133 lb (below top weight)
2%430.9