Model probability
4.7%
Fair odds
41/2
Model edge
—
Raw score
40.0
Official rating
77
Weight
135lb
Draw
2
Days since last run
87
Today's race
The conditions this rating was produced for.
Race
Aesterius At Bearstone Stud Handicap Stakes
Conditions
Class 4 · 5f · Heavy · Turf
Field
12 runners · Handicap
Recent form
Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.
487-18
Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.
Why this rating?
Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.
Data quality: HighModel v1.4
| Recent form & race quality Form line 487-18 over the last 5 start(s); 87 day(s) since the last run | 58% | 31 | 18.2 |
| Official rating & class suitability Official rating 77 against a class 4 contest | 12% | 49 | 5.9 |
| Distance suitability Past-distance record not available on the current data feed | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Going suitability Going record not available on the current data feed (today: heavy) | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Draw / course-position advantage Stall 2 of 12 | 3% | 84 | 2.5 |
| Course performance Course record at Haydock not available on the current data feed | 4% | 50 | 2.0 |
| Speed / performance ratings Official rating 77 against a field average of 77 (speed figures not in the current feed) | 4% | 49 | 2.0 |
| Trainer recent form Kevin & Lauren Frost — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Jockey recent form Jack Mitchell — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 2% | 50 | 1.0 |
| Weight / handicap position Carrying 135 lb (below top weight) | 2% | 47 | 0.9 |