Model probability
7.9%
Fair odds
117/10
Model edge
—
Raw score
49.5
Official rating
82
Weight
140lb
Draw
4
Days since last run
15
Today's race
The conditions this rating was produced for.
Race
Aesterius At Bearstone Stud Handicap Stakes
Conditions
Class 4 · 5f · Heavy · Turf
Field
12 runners · Handicap
Recent form
Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.
018762
Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.
Why this rating?
Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.
Data quality: HighModel v1.4
| Recent form & race quality Form line 018762 over the last 6 start(s); 15 day(s) since the last run | 58% | 45 | 26.4 |
| Official rating & class suitability Official rating 82 against a class 4 contest | 12% | 57 | 6.8 |
| Distance suitability Past-distance record not available on the current data feed | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Going suitability Going record not available on the current data feed (today: heavy) | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Draw / course-position advantage Stall 4 of 12 | 3% | 99 | 3.0 |
| Speed / performance ratings Official rating 82 against a field average of 77 (speed figures not in the current feed) | 4% | 60 | 2.4 |
| Course performance Course record at Haydock not available on the current data feed | 4% | 50 | 2.0 |
| Trainer recent form Declan Carroll — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Jockey recent form Zak Wheatley — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 2% | 50 | 1.0 |
| Weight / handicap position Carrying 140 lb (top weight) | 2% | 20 | 0.4 |