Live British & Irish racecards — probabilities are estimates, not tips
← Back to the 15:47 Haydock

American Bay

5yo · Paul Midgley · David Nolan · Fri, 4 Sept 2026

Model probability
3.9%
Fair odds
247/10
Model edge
Raw score
36.8
Official rating
72
Weight
130lb
Draw
12
Days since last run
22

Today's race

The conditions this rating was produced for.

Race
Aesterius At Bearstone Stud Handicap Stakes
Conditions
Class 4 · 5f · Heavy · Turf
Field
12 runners · Handicap

Recent form

Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.

572057

Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.

Why this rating?

Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.

Data quality: HighModel v1.4
Recent form & race quality
Form line 572057 over the last 6 start(s); 22 day(s) since the last run
58%2917.1
Official rating & class suitability
Official rating 72 against a class 4 contest
12%425.0
Distance suitability
Past-distance record not available on the current data feed
6%503.0
Going suitability
Going record not available on the current data feed (today: heavy)
6%503.0
Course performance
Course record at Haydock not available on the current data feed
4%502.0
Speed / performance ratings
Official rating 72 against a field average of 77 (speed figures not in the current feed)
4%381.5
Trainer recent form
Paul Midgley — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
3%501.5
Weight / handicap position
Carrying 130 lb (below top weight)
2%751.5
Draw / course-position advantage
Stall 12 of 12
3%421.2
Jockey recent form
David Nolan — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed
2%501.0