Model probability
13.0%
Fair odds
67/10
Model edge
—
Raw score
58.5
Official rating
73
Weight
130lb
Draw
3
Days since last run
21
Today's race
The conditions this rating was produced for.
Race
Aesterius At Bearstone Stud Handicap Stakes
Conditions
Class 4 · 5f · Heavy · Turf
Field
12 runners · Handicap
Recent form
Figures from the official racecard, most recent run last.
217732
Numbers are finishing positions; a dash marks a season break and letters mark non-completions. Full past-race history is not available on the current data plan, so the model reads these figures rather than individual past runs.
Why this rating?
Every factor, its weight and how this horse scored against the field.
Data quality: HighModel v1.4
| Recent form & race quality Form line 217732 over the last 6 start(s); 21 day(s) since the last run | 58% | 64 | 37.0 |
| Official rating & class suitability Official rating 73 against a class 4 contest | 12% | 43 | 5.2 |
| Distance suitability Past-distance record not available on the current data feed | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Going suitability Going record not available on the current data feed (today: heavy) | 6% | 50 | 3.0 |
| Draw / course-position advantage Stall 3 of 12 | 3% | 91 | 2.7 |
| Course performance Course record at Haydock not available on the current data feed | 4% | 50 | 2.0 |
| Speed / performance ratings Official rating 73 against a field average of 77 (speed figures not in the current feed) | 4% | 40 | 1.6 |
| Trainer recent form William Haggas — yard strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 3% | 50 | 1.5 |
| Weight / handicap position Carrying 130 lb (below top weight) | 2% | 75 | 1.5 |
| Jockey recent form Cieren Fallon — rider strike-rate data not included in the current data feed | 2% | 50 | 1.0 |